A sober assessment of the recent German elections from abroad

It is quite telling when someone from abroad captures the mood and reasons around the recent three state elections in Germany and the results so concise. Unlike those from the German gazettes and mandatory fee-based state TV.

Here he goes:

Considering that such a big electoral upset can happen even in Germany – a country with very low unemployment, a still fairly strong economy and high stock prices – establishment politicians elsewhere in Europe have every reason to fear even more upheaval (it couldn’t happen to a more deserving bunch). We enjoy their discomfort as just much as the discomfort of the Washington elites in the face of Mr. Trump’s ascent, although we remain extremely wary of what is rising in their wake in many places.

Superficially the recent wave of migrants combined with Ms. Merkel’s tone-deaf reaction to the resentment it has caused appears to be responsible for this stunning political backlash. However, as we have mentioned previously, we believe there is actually a deeper underlying trend that is finding expression.

The refugee crisis very likely only proved to be a convenient trigger event – if it hadn’t been that, it would have been something else. After all, the AfD was originally founded in opposition to the EU and the euro. In short, one must try to differentiate between actual causes and mere symptoms. In all likelihood, a big influx of refugees wouldn’t have provoked a similar backlash in the 1990s, a time when optimism was generally still in an upswing, this is to say, “social mood” was still positive.

One thing readers need to keep in mind about all this is that growing disenchantment with the system and resentment against the established order is likely to greatly affect political and economic stability and with it financial market volatility in coming months and years. This is not a trend that is going to go away quickly or quietly.

Just a year ago Merkel was at the peak of her power, front page TIME and crushing Greece from behind the curtain. These days she has to kowtow to Turkey. The times they are a changin'.

This resentment is by no means confined to “uneducated extreme right-wingers”. One often gets the impression that Germany’s mainstream press would dearly like its fast-dwindling readership to believe so, but it is simply not true. By way of anecdote, here is a remark we recently overheard that is worth relating in this context (it was uttered by a lawyer who can definitely not be associated with the “extreme right”). We are paraphrasing below:

    “Western citizens have to put up with ubiquitous surveillance nowadays and are often treated like common criminals at airports. All of this is being done to ostensibly “protect us” from terrorists coming from the Middle East. At the same time, millions of people from the very same area are now crossing our borders and are essentially just being waved through. Our political elites have completely lost touch with reality and are treating us like total morons”.

The man has become so disgusted with the bulk of mainstream press reportage in recent years, that he insists on using the moniker “lying press” for it these days (which has become quite popular in Germany). This is just one example – the change in social mood epitomized by such opinions is palpable everywhere and across all social classes. It is by no means confined to so-called “radicals”.

Full post here

Angela Mürkül