Success on YouTube might mean you will still have to flip burgers

A sobering study on chances to strike it rich on YouTube.

YouTube channels, uploads and views: A statistical analysis of the past 10 years

Mathias Bärtl
Hochschule für Technik, Wirtschaft und Medien Offenburg, Germany

Abstract

To this date, it is difficult to find high-level statistics on YouTube that paint a fair picture of the platform in its entirety. This study attempts to provide an overall characterization of YouTube, based on a random sample of channel and video data, by showing how video provision and consumption evolved over the course of the past 10 years. It demonstrates stark contrasts between video genres in terms of channels, uploads and views, and that a vast majority of on average 85% of all views goes to a small minority of 3% of all channels. The analytical results give evidence that older channels have a significantly higher probability to garner a large viewership, but also show that there has always been a small chance for young channels to become successful quickly, depending on whether they choose their genre wisely.

Conclusion and discussion

One of the key observations presented in this article is the overwhelming dominance of very few channels over the rest of content on YouTube. The findings of this study provide strong indications that this macro-manifestation of the rich-get-richer phenomenon can be linked to two of probably three factors, namely (a) general processes ofgrowth and sharing of information (Crane and Sornette, 2008) and (b) a mismatch between supply and demand of content. Firstly, it is normal for videos or channels that have already been viewed by many to get more new views, simply because they have a greater sharing base. As channels and videos collect more views in the course of their lifetime, there is always a possibility to gather a critical mass of attention, but for most, it will take long and a lot of patience. Secondly, an overwhelming growth of, for example, People & Blogs channels against a moderate consumer interest creates an increasing mismatch between demand and supply and will naturally leave many channels with very few views. It is therefore not surprising that the channel category is a highly significant predictor of channel success. The data show that there has always been some space for newcomers to become successful quickly in categories with an expedient demand–supply ratio. A preliminary review of the channels from 2016 that made it to the top 3% within their first year of existence indicates a mix ofUGC and professionally produced videos, but this needs more analysis. However, it does give hope that YouTube’s ‘broadcast yourself’ rhetoric is not a complete fiction. A third factor (c), which probably accelerates the convergence of views towards a few content providers, is YouTube’s search and recommendation algorithms and video promotion sales (Kim, 2012; Zhou et al., 2011). That third factor is in the hands of YouTube and could be adjusted to help steer the platform at least somewhat towards a social networking ideal, improve the chances of young content providers to build a worthwhile viewership and thereby help keep the production of UGC interesting.

Pdf here

via Bloomberg