Posts mit dem Label immigration deutschland werden angezeigt. Alle Posts anzeigen
Posts mit dem Label immigration deutschland werden angezeigt. Alle Posts anzeigen

7/04/2018

Trump understands this, Merkel certainly does not

Immigration and Redistribution

by Alberto Alesina, Armando Miano, Stefanie Stantcheva

First the expected biases and overestimates.
We find strikingly large biases in natives' perceptions of the number and characteristics of immigrants: in all countries, respondents greatly overestimate the total number of immigrants, think immigrants are culturally and religiously more distant from them, and are economically weaker – less educated, more unemployed, poorer, and more reliant on government transfers – than is the case.
Prevalence is where?
While all respondents have misperceptions, those with the largest ones are systematically the right-wing, the non-college educated, and the low-skilled working in immigration-intensive sectors.
It's not the numbers, it's who they are.
Support for redistribution is strongly correlated with the perceived composition of immigrants – their origin and economic contribution – rather than with the perceived share of immigrants per se. 
But then again just thinking about them ...
Given the very negative baseline views that respondents have of immigrants, simply making them think about immigration in a randomized manner makes them support less redistribution, including actual donations to charities. 
Even favorable traits get discounted quickly.
We also experimentally show respondents information about the true i) number, ii) origin, and iii) “hard work” of immigrants in their country. On its own, information on the “hard work” of immigrants generates more support for redistribution. However, if people are also prompted to think in detail about immigrants' characteristics, then none of these favorable information treatments manages to counteract their negative priors that generate lower support for redistribution.
Which will show up in election results and compound the political landscape

via MR

5/16/2018

US study about the political impact of immigration on elections should raise concerns in Germany

Here is a study from the US about the political impact of immigration on elections and what political parties people tend to vote for when "confronted" with low-skilled versus high-skilled immigrants.

With integration of immigrants in the US certainly better than in Germany, those findings should raise grave concerns in Germany and in particular its impact on the political landscape. Secondly, unemployment, in particular youth unemployment, in the Eurozone is markedly higher than in America. Further increases will lead to a shift to right-wing parties.


THE POLITICAL IMPACT OF IMMIGRATION: EVIDENCE FROM THE UNITED STATES

Anna Maria Mayda Giovanni Peri Walter Steingress

NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138
ABSTRACT
In this paper we study the impact of immigration to the United States on the vote for the Republican Party by analyzing county-level data on election outcomes between 1990 and 2010. Our main contribution is to separate the effect of high-skilled and low-skilled immigrants, by exploiting the different geography and timing of the inflows of these two groups of immigrants. We find that an increase in the first type of immigrants decreases the share of the Republican vote, while an inflow of the second type increases it. These effects are mainly due to the local impact of immigrants on votes of U.S. citizens and they seem independent of the country of origin of immigrants. We also find that the pro-Republican impact of low-skilled immigrants is stronger in low-skilled and non-urban counties. This is consistent with citizens' political preferences shifting towards the Republican Party in places where low-skilled immigrants are more likely to be perceived as competition in the labor market and for public resources.
Conclusion
In this paper we have analyzed the connection between the change in the immigrant population and the vote to the Republican Party, exploiting the variation across U.S. counties between 1990 and 2010. We hypothesize that such a connection can be different in response to high- or low-skilled immigrants.
The first group certainly brings fiscal benefits to natives, possibly increases job creation and growth, and is believed to be easily integrated. The second may have a fiscal cost, may compete in the labor market with less-educated voters, and may have a harder time to integrate. We take no stand on whether these assessments of facts are correct, and in general economists agree that the labor market effects of less-educated immigrants are small (e.g. Ottaviano and Peri (2012)), but we think that they may correspond to the perceptions of U.S. voters.
We also account for the fact that the perception and response of voters (and hence of counties, in that their median voter differs) may be different depending on their characteristics. Less-skilled citizens may perceive the labor market and fiscal competition of less-skilled immigrants, while high-skilled citizens may value their skills and their contributions to the local economy.
We find that an increase in low-skilled immigrants affects the vote of U.S. counties in different ways, but in general tends to push voters towards the Republican Party. Non-urban, low-skill counties with high local public spending strongly increased their Republican vote share in response to low-skilled immigration. To the contrary, voting patterns in urban, high-skilled counties with low local public spending did not respond much to low-skilled immigration, but did respond to high-skilled immigration by moving towards the Democratic Party.
The differential response to the inflow of more- and less-educated immigrants is consistent with an explanation in which natives prefer high-skilled immigrants, and their response to less-educated immigrants is negative and stronger the less educated the local population. Interestingly, this differential response to immigration is another contributor to the polarization and political divide in the United States. While the most highly educated immigrants (as well as less-educated, though not as many) moved into urban, skill-intensive areas and contributed to moving those already left-leaning areas further towards the Democratic Party, low-skilled immigration (and not much highskilled immigration) in non-urban and low-skilled areas has contributed to push those areas towards the Republican Party. Our model can explain 22% of the growth in the Republican Party vote share over the 1990-2010 period across U.S. counties, and it shows how the opinion response to immigration is consistent with the local perception of economic costs and benefits from it.

3/23/2018

Merkel's immigration policy a net positive for childbearing

Chided at home for her immigration policy, Merkel gets support from a scientific study. First some facts.

"With a value of 1.50 in 2015, however, it is still far from the replacement level fertility of 2.1 children per woman."

Hang on, here comes good news for Merkel's Germany courtesy Martin Fieder and Susanne Huber and their study 'Evolution and Human Reproduction'. The replacement level fertility of 2.1 children per woman may be met in coming years.

According to that study,
... Those studies based on representative data sets from modern societies clearly demonstrate that particularly personal income is positively associated with the number of children in men but not in women, where the association is mostly neutral or even negative (Fieder et al., 2005; Hopcroft, 2006, 2015; Weeden, Abrams, Green, & Sabini, 2006; Nettle & Pollet, 2008; Fieder, Huber, & Bookstein, 2011; Barthold, Myrskylä, & Jones, 2012; Fieder & Huber, 2012). The position in a social hierarchy is also positively associated with offspring number in men but not women (Fieder et al., 2005; Fieder & Huber, 2012).
IOW, men with higher income tend to have more children. Not so women.
In most cases, this positive relationship between socioeconomic status indicators and offspring number was explained by the higher chance of low-status men to remain unmated and, thus, childless.
So poor men have difficulties finding a mate and thus remain out of the "child production" cycle. Now here comes the kicker.
In society subsets, however, not only does the risk of childlessness increase among men of low income but also the number of children increases in those who reproduce at all (Fieder et al., 2005).
Though poor males are left behind, those who do find a spouse fornicate like rabbits. One can not help but give Merkel credit for this ingenuity. After all, she is a scientist herself.
This may be particularly important in societies at risk of disintegration into subsamples—for instance, in the case of high immigration. Although income provides a rather “universal status indicator” (Fieder, Huber, & Bookstein, 2011), in immigrants, some status indicators could have a different meaning because migrants may partially use the partially deviating status system of their home society.
It may not be disintegration that immigrants are facing in Germany, but the country does not have a good track record in integrating foreigners. The status indicator of their home society is often the number of children for they provide social security in old age. There you go, Germany.

Let's turn to religion and the fact that the new German Interior Heimat Minister Seehofer from the deep woods of Bavaria stated in his first speech that 'Islam is not a part of Germany'. I am not sure he reflected that properly, but then again, he hails from the province of Bavaria where clocks tick differently. He might break out a cold sweat when reading:
A particularly high degree of homogamy has been found for religion (Fieder & Huber, 2016), as well as education (Huber & Fieder, 2011). An analysis of census data from IPUMS International (https://international.ipums.org/international) reveals a worldwide mean in religious homogamy of 94.82%. The highest prevalence of religious homogamy is found in the Muslim world (usually >99%), in which the Quran ensures the rate of high homogamy (Quran, 2:221, 5:5, 60:10), ...
He may even be more shocked to hear about the prospects.
Marriage stability and satisfaction may in turn affect fertility decisions. Indeed, religiously homogamous couples have a significantly lower chance of remaining childless but a higher average number of children, even controlling for religious intensity (Krishnan, 1993; Fieder & Huber, 2016).
He may even be close to a heart attack when the study found "a cultural trait may represent an expanded “kinship system” that may have evolved during the aggregation to larger social units". The prospect of a religion-based dichotomy is not particularly enticing for staid, traditional Germans. The AfD says hello.
The clear pro-fertile effect of religious (Fieder & Huber, 2016) and, to a lesser extent, educational homogamy (Huber & Fieder, 2011, 2016) indicates that there may also be evolutionary reasons for the high prevalence of homogamous mating. From an evolutionary standpoint, marriage along a cultural trait may represent an expanded “kinship system” that may have evolved during the aggregation to larger social units. In the case of religious homogamy, for instance, despite the fact that a certain proportion of religious homogamous marriages can be expected among kin, individuals may recognize other individuals of the same religion “as somehow closer,” sharing at least some essential values. A comparable mechanism may also hold true for educational homogamy, albeit educational homogamy represents a much younger “mating system.”
Dichotomy sounds much more benign than a "breakup of societies into “parallel societies,”", yet that may be in the cards.
In times of global mass migrations, the high prevalence of religious homogamy, together with its reproductive effects, may also have far-reaching implications because it may lead to the breakup of societies into “parallel societies,” which is why efforts to integrate migrants will be demanding.
It is also to be doubted that Germans will subscribe to an “inclusive fitness perspective”, let alone a "religious and cultural groups mix". Mention the suggestion to "reproduce across group boundaries" to the majority of Germans and you might see open revolt in the streets, almost certainly mayhem in East Germany.
From an “inclusive fitness perspective” (Hamilton, 1964), integration will be successful if religious and cultural groups mix—that is, reproduce across group boundaries. In the case of such mixed reproduction, cooperation is expected to be high regardless of the cultural group to which the relatives and those related by marriage belong: Via their offspring, their grand-offspring, and subsequent generations of descendants, they share genes in common.
The AfD and strata of German society will ensure "the very strong “biological ties” of cooperation" and "sustainable social cohesion" albeit to the detriment of shitlib political parties.
Therefore, if cultural groups mix, the very strong “biological ties” of cooperation ensure sustainable social cohesion. Accordingly, these newly arising “mixed groups“ may form new minimal endogamous sets in subsequent generations (Whitmeyer, 1997) in which cooperation may be high. Genetic data suggest that this process may have often occurred during human evolution and migration (Patterson et al., 2012).
The future's so bright for Germany, you might want to wear shades.

7/30/2017

The latest attack by a refugee in Germany, or "Immigration and Scapegoating"

The latest incident in Hamburg, one in a line of several others so far in Germany, should be of great concern. NOT because it was committed by, as is reported so far, a refugee claiming to be Palestinian born in the UAE, in addition supposed to be "mentally unstable", BUT because it "erodes public trust and feelings of social solidarity", as Alexander Douglas writes in an excellent post. It is titled

Immigration and Scapegoating

There is some evidence suggesting that high levels of immigration from foreign cultures erodes public trust and feelings of social solidarity. Some recent books by David Miller and Paul Collier cite this evidence in the course of arguing for controlled immigration.

Why should cultural diversity undermine public trust? Collier builds a model to explain it. The model is revealing — it shows up many of the assumptions that underlie opposition to multicultural immigration. But the facts can be explained in many ways. I propose to explain them in a different way to Collier. But first let me give his account.

Public cooperation depends on altruism. A cooperative society is governed by rules and norms of behaviour, prohibiting individuals from exploiting others. There is always a temptation for individuals to ignore these rules in pursuit of personal gain. Society can devise a system of punishments to discourage non-cooperation. But punishment is itself an altruistic act. The punisher pays costs — e.g., there is the risk of retaliation from the punished. The benefit — the maintenance of the cooperative system — accrues to society as a whole, while the costs are focussed exclusively on the punisher.

We can do what we can to spread the costs of punishment as evenly as we can across society. But, Collier insists, a functioning system of cooperation will always depend on “heroes” — those who go the extra mile to keep society safe.

Think of Batman: he spends his own money on military hardware and works frequent night-shifts to keep the streets of Gotham safe. He pays all the costs and he gets very little of the benefits. He probably makes himself less safe than he would have been had he left the policing to the police and not made himself a target for every villain in town. Very selfless of him. Not all heroes don’t wear capes.

The main threat to a cooperative system comes not from those that Collier calls “minor villains” — those who don’t cooperate — but rather from those he calls “supervillians” — the people who punish the heroes. Collier is not explicit here, but he seems to be thinking in terms of a positive feedback loop. A hero might be willing to altruistically pay a certain cost to keep the cooperative society going, but the presence of supervillains will keep upping the ante. Punishing one crime will lead to retaliatory crimes, punishing those crimes will lead to more, and so on until the hero has drained her moral capital.

The crucial ingredient in a cooperative system is therefore ‘villains’ who do not retaliate when they are punished.

But this, Collier argues, is culturally rare. Most cultures of the past, and many of the present, remain committed to the principle of the vendetta and the blood feud: attack one of ours, and we will attack one of yours. Punish the transgressor, and her allies will punish the punisher in retaliation. Collier notes:

Vendettas are a normal aspect of clan-based societies. Historically, clans have been the most common basis for social organization, and in so many poor countries they continue to be so. As Steven Pinker shows, vendettas are reinforced because wrongs are systematically exaggerated by victims and minimized by perpetrators, so that the retaliation regarded as justified by victims of the initial wrong creates a fresh wrong in the eyes of the new victims. Vendettas only end once the entire moral code of honor is abandoned.

The same claim appears in the work of René Girard. Girard’s pioneering anthropological study, Violence and the Sacred (1972), identified the phenomenon highlighted by Pinker. For Girard the crucial distinction is between private and public vengeance. ‘Primitive’ societies, as Girard called them, have only private vengeance: “an interminable, infinitely repetitive process”. Public vengeance, by contrast, “is the exclusive property of well-policed societies, and our society calls it the judicial system”.

Girard goes on: “Under the public system, an act of vengeance is no longer avenged; the process is terminated, the danger of escalation averted”. Again the crucial point: public vengeance is not avenged. This, to speak in Collier’s terms, keeps the cost of punishing (avenging) noncooperation within reasonable bounds. It allows ‘heroes’ to sustain a reasonably cooperative society with only a few minor transgressions.

So what is the problem with multicultural immigration, according to Collier? Put simply, it is that while Western societies have overcome the culture of the vendetta, allowing the formation of what Girard calls “public vengeance” — the judicial system, non-Western societies have not. “Migrants bring not only the human capital generated in their own societies; they also bring the moral codes of their own societies.” They import the vendetta and the blood feud, and these destroy the cooperative systems of their host societies.

Since Collier’s whole argument hangs on this crucial empirical claim, it is surprising how little evidence he offers for it. Instead, he offers anecdotes. I find them unconvincing.

For instance, in the 1960s a (white British) criminal shot dead three policemen; his criminal network refused to hide him because he had broken an unwritten code that neither criminals nor police carry guns in the UK. By contrast, when in 2011 Mark Duggan pulled a gun in a police car and was shot by the police (who pleaded self-defence), his community of peers rose up and rioted in retaliation.

Collier’s proposed analysis is as follows: Duggan was of Jamaican descent. In Jamaica there is no unwritten code against carrying guns, and Jamaicans had brought their own foreign morality to the UK. It is true that the police who shot Duggan had also given up on the unwritten rule against guns, but this was because Jamaican immigrants had already broken the covenant (Collier is not so explicit, but I can’t think what else he could mean). Given what Collier has said before, the implication is clearly that Jamaicans still operate on the principle of the vendetta, whereas ‘traditional’ Britons accept that retaliations against certain violations should not be avenged.

The argument is readily extended to defend harsh policies towards immigration from Arab countries (not from Muslim countries — nobody talks about Indonesia, the largest Muslim country of them all). The stereotypical Arab loves a blood feud; in Lawrence of Arabia a tribe is only saved from a spiral of vengeance by the intervention of a white infiltrator.

Suppose we grant all these premises, unfounded though many of them are. We then need to ask one crucial question. If the spirit of the blood feud is so common in most societies, how have Western societies overcome it? How come we can punish criminals without setting off an interminable spiral of vengeance?

Collier’s answers are highly unsatisfying; he makes vague gestures towards supposed cultural and intellectual ‘revolutions’ that changed ‘our’ attitudes, without going into any historical detail.

To find a better answer, I propose to first ask another question — the question with which Girard begins. If societies collapse so readily into blood feuds, how do they survive at all? If each attack must be avenged by another attack, how does this not escalate to the point of mutually assured destruction on all sides?

Girard’s answer is one word long: Scapegoating. The opposing parties of the vendetta, by some psychological magic, both transfer all blame onto a single third party — a scapegoated victim. Either the scapegoat is chosen on account of his or her social isolation or steps are taken to cut the bonds of solidarity with anyone who might avenge him or her. The victim can than be destroyed or banished. Everyone’s thirst for retribution is quenched in this final act of vengeance. And there is nobody to avenge it.

Have Western societies somehow got beyond scapegoating? At times Girard seems to think so (though this is tied up with his Christian faith). But if you have the stomach for it, have a look at the book Scapegoat, by Katherine Quarmby, which documents a series of horrific torture-murders of disabled persons. In every case, the victim is blamed for some arbitrary crime; in every case, the victim is, as disabled persons often are, socially isolated and cut off from anyone who might intervene (or seek vengeance).

Quarmby’s book is almost unbearable reading. Slightly less nightmarish is the recent history of immigration policy in the UK. Here is an excerpt from Michael Dummett’s Immigration and Refugees:

A system of ‘quota vouchers’ was inaugurated. Asian citizens of the UK and Colonies living in the East African countries could apply for such vouchers . . . . Those who came without a quota voucher were subjected to a cruel punishment: they were ‘shuttlecocked’. This meant that they were put back on the planes on which they had arrived, which then made the return journey to where they had embarked. This was done in the full knowledge that they would be refused entry to the country from which they had fled. Very often they had to stay on the plane for its further flight to Australia or other destination, and eventually all the way back to Britain. At that stage, they would then be again put back on the plane, to repeat the whole process: sometimes this happened three or more times. Finally, arrived yet once more in Britain, they would be placed in detention. Callahan was an enthusiastic shuttlecocker, who did not hesitate to apply this punishment to women with children.

Why was this done? In terms of security, the migrants could have just been detained upon first arrival. The policy was clearly punitive, but what was the crime? The migrants were people living in newly decolonised nations who had elected to retain British citizenship rather than taking on the citizenship of the new countries. They were eventually forced out of their home countries and, due to recent Home Office policy, unable to enter the only country for which they held a passport. This was the crime for which they deserved to spend days on end flying with small children.

I propose that the immigrants were not being punished for their own crimes. They were the convergence points, convenient outlets, for vendettas that did not begin with them. They were scapegoats.

Scapegoating, on Girard’s analysis, saves society in its way. It concentrates dangerous vendettas onto helpless victims who cannot retaliate. Otherwise the vendettas would run wild. This doesn’t justify scapegoating; it simply identifies its social function.

Immigrants make excellent scapegoats. Some people might try to protect them, but very few people will avenge them when they are victimised. Refugees are even better — almost by definition they are without the protection of anyone (only the relatively toothless UNHCR).

Thus I propose a different reading of the facts to Collier. Maybe societies do begin to function less cooperatively when they take a welcoming attitude towards culturally diverse migrants. But maybe this is because, in doing so, they stop victimising a convenient scapegoat. Also, the larger an immigrant community — a disapora — becomes, the harder it is to scapegoat the members of that community — there are too many potential avengers.

To explain why a more open immigration policy can harm a cooperative society, we don’t need to tell a triumphalist story of how the West went through a magnificent cultural enlightenment while the rest of the world remained in darkness. We don’t need to pretend that our societies alone have purged the ‘supervillains’, though millions of them are lurking over the border.

We’re all supervillains. We’re all prone to falling into cycles of endless retaliation. We can stay safe from each other if we agree to collectively beat up on someone who can’t hit back. But a kinder immigration policy cuts off one convenient source of scapegoats. To that extent, it is dangerous. But that sounds like a moral reason to change ourselves, not the policy.

9/05/2014

Kein Studium trotz bester Noten

Der ganz normale und alltägliche Rassismus in Deutschland


Er hat sein Abitur mit einem Notendurchschnitt von 1,6 gemacht und im ersten Anlauf einen Studienplatz für sein Wunschfach Angewandte Mathematik bekommen. Und trotzdem darf Roman Bulatow nicht studieren. Dafür braucht der 21-Jährige die Erlaubnis der Ausländerbehörde des Kreises. Und die bekommt er nicht. Denn er besitzt kein gültiges Ausweisdokument, lebt - wie rund 94 000 Menschen, deren Asylantrag abgelehnt wurde - mit dem Status einer Duldung in Deutschland.


...



"Ich möchte Ingenieur werden und etwas zur Entwicklung Deutschlands beitragen. Und ich möchte finanziell auf eigenen Beinen stehen", sagt der junge Mann. Doch als er sich Ende Juli an der FH einschreiben will, wird er trotz Zulassungsbescheid abgewiesen. "Um sich einzuschreiben, muss sich die Person eindeutig ausweisen können", sagt FH-Sprecher Detlev Grewe und fügt hinzu: "Wenn wir einen entsprechenden Hinweis der Ausländerbehörde bekämen, dann würden wir allerdings auf die Passvorlage verzichten."
Doch die Ausländerbehörde lehnt die Ausstellung einer solchen Bescheinigung ab. Bulatow wirke nicht mit an der Feststellung seiner Identität und deshalb bekomme er weder eine Aufenthaltsgenehmigung noch eine Ausbildungserlaubnis, teilt eine Sprecherin auf HK-Anfrage mit.

voller Artikel hier

Derweil Deutschland mit Einwanderern aus Spanien u.a. Ländern erblüht

Die Muster-Migranten, so das Regenbogennachrichtenmagazin Der Spiegel.

Das Handelsblatt hat die Immigrantenerfolgs Kool-Aid gleich literweise gesoffen:

Spanier stürmen Deutschland

Die Euro-Krise trägt Deutschland bitterböse Kritik ein, macht das Land bei vielen Bewohnern der Krisenstaaten aber auch sehr attraktiv. Immer mehr Zuwanderer kommen nach Deutschland - und verlassen ganz bestimmte Länder.

Kein Wunder, bei der Menge von Immgranten kann das Projekt nur ein Erfolg sein.


Mario Draghi von der EZB dazu:



“Cross-country migration flows are relatively small and are unlikely to ever become a key driver of labour market adjustment after large shocks.......the long-term cohesion of the euro area depends on each country in the union achieving a sustainably high level of employment.”