Merkel's immigration policy a net positive for childbearing

Chided at home for her immigration policy, Merkel gets support from a scientific study. First some facts.

"With a value of 1.50 in 2015, however, it is still far from the replacement level fertility of 2.1 children per woman."

Hang on, here comes good news for Merkel's Germany courtesy Martin Fieder and Susanne Huber and their study 'Evolution and Human Reproduction'. The replacement level fertility of 2.1 children per woman may be met in coming years.

According to that study,

... Those studies based on representative data sets from modern societies clearly demonstrate that particularly personal income is positively associated with the number of children in men but not in women, where the association is mostly neutral or even negative (Fieder et al., 2005; Hopcroft, 2006, 2015; Weeden, Abrams, Green, & Sabini, 2006; Nettle & Pollet, 2008; Fieder, Huber, & Bookstein, 2011; Barthold, Myrskylä, & Jones, 2012; Fieder & Huber, 2012). The position in a social hierarchy is also positively associated with offspring number in men but not women (Fieder et al., 2005; Fieder & Huber, 2012).

IOW, men with higher income tend to have more children. Not so women.

In most cases, this positive relationship between socioeconomic status indicators and offspring number was explained by the higher chance of low-status men to remain unmated and, thus, childless.

So poor men have difficulties finding a mate and thus remain out of the "child production" cycle. Now here comes the kicker.

In society subsets, however, not only does the risk of childlessness increase among men of low income but also the number of children increases in those who reproduce at all (Fieder et al., 2005).

Though poor males are left behind, those who do find a spouse fornicate like rabbits. One can not help but give Merkel credit for this ingenuity. After all, she is a scientist herself.

This may be particularly important in societies at risk of disintegration into subsamples—for instance, in the case of high immigration. Although income provides a rather “universal status indicator” (Fieder, Huber, & Bookstein, 2011), in immigrants, some status indicators could have a different meaning because migrants may partially use the partially deviating status system of their home society.

It may not be disintegration that immigrants are facing in Germany, but the country does not have a good track record in integrating foreigners. The status indicator of their home society is often the number of children for they provide social security in old age. There you go, Germany.

Let's turn to religion and the fact that the new German Interior Heimat Minister Seehofer from the deep woods of Bavaria stated in his first speech that 'Islam is not a part of Germany'. I am not sure he reflected that properly, but then again, he hails from the province of Bavaria where clocks tick differently. He might break out a cold sweat when reading:

A particularly high degree of homogamy has been found for religion (Fieder & Huber, 2016), as well as education (Huber & Fieder, 2011). An analysis of census data from IPUMS International (https://international.ipums.org/international) reveals a worldwide mean in religious homogamy of 94.82%. The highest prevalence of religious homogamy is found in the Muslim world (usually >99%), in which the Quran ensures the rate of high homogamy (Quran, 2:221, 5:5, 60:10), ...

He may even be more shocked to hear about the prospects.

Marriage stability and satisfaction may in turn affect fertility decisions. Indeed, religiously homogamous couples have a significantly lower chance of remaining childless but a higher average number of children, even controlling for religious intensity (Krishnan, 1993; Fieder & Huber, 2016).

He may even be close to a heart attack when the study found "a cultural trait may represent an expanded “kinship system” that may have evolved during the aggregation to larger social units". The prospect of a religion-based dichotomy is not particularly enticing for staid, traditional Germans. The AfD says hello.

The clear pro-fertile effect of religious (Fieder & Huber, 2016) and, to a lesser extent, educational homogamy (Huber & Fieder, 2011, 2016) indicates that there may also be evolutionary reasons for the high prevalence of homogamous mating. From an evolutionary standpoint, marriage along a cultural trait may represent an expanded “kinship system” that may have evolved during the aggregation to larger social units. In the case of religious homogamy, for instance, despite the fact that a certain proportion of religious homogamous marriages can be expected among kin, individuals may recognize other individuals of the same religion “as somehow closer,” sharing at least some essential values. A comparable mechanism may also hold true for educational homogamy, albeit educational homogamy represents a much younger “mating system.”

Dichotomy sounds much more benign than a "breakup of societies into “parallel societies,”", yet that may be in the cards.

In times of global mass migrations, the high prevalence of religious homogamy, together with its reproductive effects, may also have far-reaching implications because it may lead to the breakup of societies into “parallel societies,” which is why efforts to integrate migrants will be demanding.

It is also to be doubted that Germans will subscribe to an “inclusive fitness perspective”, let alone a "religious and cultural groups mix". Mention the suggestion to "reproduce across group boundaries" to the majority of Germans and you might see open revolt in the streets, almost certainly mayhem in East Germany.

From an “inclusive fitness perspective” (Hamilton, 1964), integration will be successful if religious and cultural groups mix—that is, reproduce across group boundaries. In the case of such mixed reproduction, cooperation is expected to be high regardless of the cultural group to which the relatives and those related by marriage belong: Via their offspring, their grand-offspring, and subsequent generations of descendants, they share genes in common.

The AfD and strata of German society will ensure "the very strong “biological ties” of cooperation" and "sustainable social cohesion" albeit to the detriment of shitlib political parties.

Therefore, if cultural groups mix, the very strong “biological ties” of cooperation ensure sustainable social cohesion. Accordingly, these newly arising “mixed groups“ may form new minimal endogamous sets in subsequent generations (Whitmeyer, 1997) in which cooperation may be high. Genetic data suggest that this process may have often occurred during human evolution and migration (Patterson et al., 2012).

The future's so bright for Germany, you might want to wear shades.

Reading Lounge

1. Must try harder - Find out who.

2. Japanese Sumo robots



3. As Ever, Vice Businesses Present Opportunities For Investors

Without any doubt, Ahrens thinks, “big alcohol and big tobacco will be increasingly involved in the future of cannabis.”

4. Baby Donald Trump causes a stir in Afghanistan - Not likely to happen to Angela Merkel

"The rosy-cheeked toddler's parents named him after the billionaire US President in the hope of replicating his success. But now he is at the centre of a social media firestorm in Afghanistan after a photo of his ID papers was posted on Facebook.

A self-confessed fan of the American tycoon turned leader of the free world, Sayed Assadullah Pooya said he and his wife have been inundated with "vulgar and insulting" comments attacking their choice of name for their third child."

5. An employee whose job was to be sacked

According to no less an authority than Danny Baker (!) this story is absolutely true.

6. $11,000 luxury Japanese toilet will probably give you the best poop experience of your life

"Plus, when the toilet sees you coming (and yes, it sees you!), it sprays a fine mist inside the bowl in preparation to keep the surfaces moist, which helps keep even more nasties away from the walls.

The 360-degree tornado flush makes sure everything goes down smooth to keep you from ever having to plunge. And finally, after you finish, the toilet sprays ionized-water around the bowl to get rid of those persistent dirt and waste particles.

The mist and the ionized water also keep the toilet nice and hygienic for you, so you’ll never have to worry about picking up any yucky germs while doing your business. The bidet spigot cleans itself with the ionized water too, and the toilet even boasts a UV light bulb that further knocks out those tiny waste particles, keeping you, your toilet, and your tush clean and germ-free."

Marine Le Pen Savages Angela Merkel to her face in front of EU Assembly

The only question I have is, why did it take so long to accost this fucking German bitch? LePen is great and she is in it with her whole heart. Merkel kind of squirming, the facial expression says it all, she is completely taken aback, insecure, looking for help. Looking for help from a statesman with an approval rating of 4%. It says all about the EU.

via Zerohedge via iBankCoin

Wall Street traders boo Hillary Clinton, chant 'Lock her up!'

Killary Rotten Clinton

You wouldn't believe this coming from CNN, but it just shows what a screwed up bitch she is. The same rotten individual the German cocksucker press endorsed and promoted all along. No matter what.

Look at the face of Bill Clinton. The German press said nothing towards this sexual predator. Instead they jerked off in public over a ridiculous and funny video showing Trump talking about loose women. And everybody knows for money grabbing their pussy is easy. It is the only capital they have and they use it.

Here is CNN:

Loud booing rocked the floor of the storied New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday during Hillary Clinton's concession speech to President-elect Donald Trump.

Some of the Wall Street traders began chanting "lock her up!," as Clinton appeared on television screens, urging her millions of disappointed supporters to accept the stunning defeat.

"Ding-dong, the witch is dead," shouted another floor trader.

The harsh reception for Clinton is the latest chapter in the bitter campaign for the White House.

....

People are sick and tired of this fucking bitch.

Nassim Taleb nailed it:

. . . . . . .

Here is good journalism as opposed to the German cocksuckers. The NY Times:


Donald Trump Rode to Power in the Role of the Common Man

Donald John Trump defied the skeptics who said he would never run, and the political veterans who scoffed at his slapdash campaign.

He attacked the norms of American politics, singling out groups for derision on the basis of race and religion and attacking the legitimacy of the political process.

He ignored conventions of common decency, employing casual vulgarity and raining personal humiliation on his political opponents and critics in the media.

(The article has been edited over the last hours though)

Full article

Via Acting-man.com

The 45th President of the USA

President Donald Trump

And from here on the EU will be the limping man, make that woman, on the planet.

I am celebrating with a bottle of Jim Beam. Cheers!

The next out is this fucking bitch.

Merkel talks about values. Haha. ©AFP

A sober assessment of the recent German elections from abroad

It is quite telling when someone from abroad captures the mood and reasons around the recent three state elections in Germany and the results so concise. Unlike those from the German gazettes and mandatory fee-based state TV.

Here he goes:

Considering that such a big electoral upset can happen even in Germany – a country with very low unemployment, a still fairly strong economy and high stock prices – establishment politicians elsewhere in Europe have every reason to fear even more upheaval (it couldn’t happen to a more deserving bunch). We enjoy their discomfort as just much as the discomfort of the Washington elites in the face of Mr. Trump’s ascent, although we remain extremely wary of what is rising in their wake in many places.

Superficially the recent wave of migrants combined with Ms. Merkel’s tone-deaf reaction to the resentment it has caused appears to be responsible for this stunning political backlash. However, as we have mentioned previously, we believe there is actually a deeper underlying trend that is finding expression.

The refugee crisis very likely only proved to be a convenient trigger event – if it hadn’t been that, it would have been something else. After all, the AfD was originally founded in opposition to the EU and the euro. In short, one must try to differentiate between actual causes and mere symptoms. In all likelihood, a big influx of refugees wouldn’t have provoked a similar backlash in the 1990s, a time when optimism was generally still in an upswing, this is to say, “social mood” was still positive.

One thing readers need to keep in mind about all this is that growing disenchantment with the system and resentment against the established order is likely to greatly affect political and economic stability and with it financial market volatility in coming months and years. This is not a trend that is going to go away quickly or quietly.

Just a year ago Merkel was at the peak of her power, front page TIME and crushing Greece from behind the curtain. These days she has to kowtow to Turkey. The times they are a changin'.

This resentment is by no means confined to “uneducated extreme right-wingers”. One often gets the impression that Germany’s mainstream press would dearly like its fast-dwindling readership to believe so, but it is simply not true. By way of anecdote, here is a remark we recently overheard that is worth relating in this context (it was uttered by a lawyer who can definitely not be associated with the “extreme right”). We are paraphrasing below:

    “Western citizens have to put up with ubiquitous surveillance nowadays and are often treated like common criminals at airports. All of this is being done to ostensibly “protect us” from terrorists coming from the Middle East. At the same time, millions of people from the very same area are now crossing our borders and are essentially just being waved through. Our political elites have completely lost touch with reality and are treating us like total morons”.

The man has become so disgusted with the bulk of mainstream press reportage in recent years, that he insists on using the moniker “lying press” for it these days (which has become quite popular in Germany). This is just one example – the change in social mood epitomized by such opinions is palpable everywhere and across all social classes. It is by no means confined to so-called “radicals”.

Full post here

Angela Mürkül

ECB's QE, NAIRU and Merkel's immigration policy

Merkel, hopeless

Just a random thought.

ECB chief economist Peter Praet: If you print enough money, you will always get inflation.

Let's leave aside that he does not understand what creates inflation. The ECB's aim is a 2% inflation rate.

The NAIRU, the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) is the unemployment rate consistent with maintaining stable inflation. According to the standard macroeconomic theory, inflation will tend to rise if the unemployment rate falls below the natural rate.

Now let's bring Merkel's immigration policy into the equation and fat German labor minister Nahles' latest assessment on all those foreigners flocking into Germany and elsewhere.

Nahles sees the vast majority of refugees as unemployable for years.

So if you believe in the policy of the ECB and believe that NAIRU has any scientific value and is not a jargon, then Merkel's immigration policy is clearly undermining all efforts of the ECB.

What does Mario say?

Merkel in the most enviable position any politician wants to be.

That's the position she always took and that she is now continuing to take most successfully: decisions are being made for her. There is a slight difference though this time. It's not her fellow politicians that tell her, where to move her ass, it's a foreign force.

That force has a name, mass migration, and it is unstoppable. But first let her bask in all the glory that apparently happened yesterday, on German TV, on boring German TV, in a ... yawn ... talk show with some chick called Anne Will (translate: Anne wants it). The teutonic nation and press are totally gaga. Merkel pulled all the right strings. Run this through Google translate and, hey Goebbels, you better watch out.

The immigrants numbers game in the German media is in full crack mode. Anywhere from 800K to 1,6 million, IOW nobody has the slightest clue. Yet what is easily observable are the increasing attacks on refugee camps or planned camps. Add to that violence inside the camps and women sold for sex at euro 10.

The Bavarian CSU, always at the forefront of xenophobia (just watch BR these days, snore) is seriously suggesting pulling up fences and exporting refugees. That is a very bright idea in that it is impossible. 

But let's assume Germany pulls up fences. What is going to happen? Germany will be a pariah in the world and that is something you just can not afford when you want need to export your cars and machines. Germany would soon face cancellations of orders in the billions of euros. There would be refugee camps in Austria, the Czech Republic and elsewhere and everybody would look in disgust at the Ugly German.

It is this mass migration that can unravel the whole idiotic project that is called EU. Excuse me, Greece? Oh, Greece is of absolutely no interest anymore. It only figures as the doorstep for the refugees/immigrants (they are not all refugees) while Alexis Tsipras Takes His Medicine, Eats His Vegetables, Washes Behind His Ears For Auntie Angela.

How can Germany handle this influx. There is a very simple answer: the number of refugees/immigrants are unmanageable. Germany will face increasing violence, increasing discontent among its citizens, the AfD will gain, it might lead to the first defenestration of a female leader, yet nobody wants to face the one fact: this is a result of the neoliberal economic policy. It is also not very soothing to remember what former German president Roman Herzog once said about Germans being cornered.

There were deeper vibes between Merkel and Tsipras during that March 23 meeting in Berlin

much much deeper. These two lovebirds are getting along better by the week. This is what great couples bring together: crises.

Those special vibes between Merkel and Tsipras

Kanzlerin Merkel: "Der Islam gehört zu Deutschland"

Kanzlerin Merkel: "Der Islam gehört zu Deutschland"

War nie ein Zweifel, aber hier noch einmal warum:

"Der frühere Bundespräsident Christian Wulff hat gesagt: Der Islam gehört zu Deutschland. Und das ist so."

Diese Aussage besteht auch die Poppersche Verifikation, denn Merkel dissertierte mit der Arbeit: "Untersuchung des Mechanismus von Zerfallsreaktionen mit einfachem Bindungsbruch und Berechnung ihrer Geschwindigkeitskonstanten auf der Grundlage quantenchemischer und statistischer Methoden ein."

Eccoci.

Mit Merkel sparend in den Zerfall der EU

Merkel: Europa muss weiter sparen

BERLIN. Kanzlerin Angela Merkel (CDU) will am Sparkurs in Europa nicht rütteln und pocht auf die Einhaltung von Haushaltsvorgaben. „Damit wir unsere Ziele erreichen, wird strikte Ausgabendisziplin erforderlich sein“, sagte sie gestern in der Generaldebatte des Bundestages. „Und das, was für Deutschland gilt, das gilt unverändert auch für Europa.“ Die Situation sei nach wie vor fragil – trotz Reformerfolgen. (dpa) 

Dazu eine knapp und prägnant gehaltene Einschätzung aus dem Artikel

The New York Times Admits that “Many Economists” Criticize EU Austerity

Worse, the preceding sentence of the NYT article, which is necessary to understand the full context of the “many economists” sentence, is a clunker.

“Germany has encouraged austerity in other countries, including Ireland, Greece, Spain and Portugal, as a way to keep the euro debt crisis at bay.”

No.  First, Germany has extorted austerity and a war on workers’ wages throughout the E.U.  Angela Merkel is not some cheerleader who “encourages” the football guys through a rousing cheer.  Merkel exploited the bond vigilantes’ attacks on the periphery and Germany’s de facto control of the ECB to obtain enough leverage to issue her diktats that forced the periphery to accede to austerity and the war on workers’ wages.

Second, Germany has not extorted austerity “to keep the euro debt crisis at bay.”  Austerity was a major aggravating factor of the debt problem.  The debt problem was easily dealt with by the ECB as my colleagues and I explained it could be.  (The Irish debt crisis was caused not by any Irish fiscal excess but the spectacular “own goal” of the Irish government deciding to gratuitously bail out (largely German) creditors of Ireland’s failed banks.)  Merkel’s political goal was to destroy the ruling parties of the left in Greece, Spain, and Portugal by forcing these parties to betray their principles and their voters and force their economies into recession by inflicting austerity.

Third, Germany claims that austerity is expansionary and that budget surpluses are morally and fiscally desirable.  Germany faces no “debt crisis,” yet it continues to run a serious fiscal surplus and a war on workers’ wages that leads to serious underinvestment in its infrastructure and inadequate consumer demand from working class Germans.  The current result of its twin economic policies of austerity and wage suppression has been stagnation in Germany and stagnation or renewed recession in the eurozone.  German “success” has come overwhelmingly from a neo-mercantilist policy of promoting net exports through German wage suppression.

This is not a strategy, of course, due to the “fallacy of composition” that can work for the eurozone as a whole.  Indeed, the larger Germany’s net exports are the less successful other nations would be were they to try to mimic Germany’s strategy.

Plunze Merkel vergleicht Eurozone mit DDR

Zitate aus “Le Monde” bzw. dem Blog des Brüsseler Korrespondenten P. Ricard:

“Ich bin in einem Staat groß geworden, der das Glück hatte, dass ihm Westdeutschland geholfen hat. Für Europa wird dies niemand machen.”

“Wenn sich alle so verhalten wie es unter dem Kommunismus möglich war, dann sind wir verloren.”

“Ohne den nötigen Zusammenhalt wird die Eurozone früher oder später explodieren”.

H/T Lost in EUrope