Posts mit dem Label greece werden angezeigt. Alle Posts anzeigen
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7/13/2019

Great Recession in Europe and the U.S. Great Depression - oh, Greece again

Post from the excellent True Economics

In a one-chart summary, why the Euro has been a painfully failing experiment in monetary policy:

The US Great Depression versus the Greek Recession
Greek Great Recession is now in year 11, and counting. By the end of 2019, the IMF estimates that the Greek economy will be 22.1 percent below the 2007 levels, and by 2024 (the furthest IMF forecast we have), it is expected to be 16.2 percent below the 2007 levels. ...
Greece is hardly the only economy in this situation. Italy is patently in the same boat, and as shown in the chart below, nine out of the EA19 states have experienced longer duration of recovery from the Great Recession than the U.S. from the Great Depression.

Euro area countries recession duration

Full post here.

Here is more on Greece by Bill Mitchell:

As you were Greece – remain in permanent depression – commitments are commitments!

12/07/2018

Greek austerity – a denial of basic human rights, penalty should be imprisonment

This is based on Bill Mitchell's post with the same title which dives deeper into economics. The occasion is somewhat fitting in that German chancellor Merkel gave up the leadership of her party CDU. It was the EU, i.e. she and her government that brought unspeakable hardship on the Greek people. It shows what the EU is all about.

Here is the executive summary of the report by the Transnational Institute. The full report is here.


Democracy Not For Sale

The Struggle for Food Sovereignty in the Age of Austerity in Greece

           AUTHORS: (in alphabetical order): Stephan Backes, Jenny Gkiougki, Sylvia Kay, Charalampos Konstantinidis, Emily Mattheisen, Christina Sakali, Eirini Tzekou, Leonidas Vatikiotis, Pietje Vervest.

Executive summary

This report examines the impacts of austerity in Greece on the right to food. It concludes that the Greek State and the Eurozone Member States violated the Greek people’s right to food as a result of the austerity measures required by three Memorandums of Understanding (2010, 2012 and 2015). In other words, the austerity packages imposed on Greece contravened international human rights law.

In August 2018, the European Council celebrated the end of the third Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), praising the Greek’s efforts and European solidarity. Yet, as this report shows, there is little to celebrate. Not only did austerity measures increase poverty and food insecurity, it further consolidated an agri-food business regime that will perpetuate inequalities in access to and control over food.

The report examines the impacts of austerity on food producers and consumer/cooperative initiatives as well as social impacts on the Greek population in general. By focusing on the human right to food, the report highlights the impact of the Greek economic crisis that has touched every aspect of people’s lives. The focus on food producers and rural areas also draws attention to an overlooked aspect of Greece’s crisis as these sectors and regions often lack voice and recognition in national politics and decision-making.

The findings are based on direct interviews and original fieldwork, supplemented by interviews (including with high-level State officials) as well as macro-economic data analysis and literature reviews of key texts.

The findings of the report are startling.

1. Austerity measures increased rural poverty and food insecurity.

• An estimated 38.9 % of rural citizens in Greece in 2017 are at risk of poverty*.
• Rural unemployment soared from 7% in 2008 to 25% in 2013 while rural income per capita dropped by 23.5% during the crisis years (2008–2013).
• Food insecurity across Greece has also increased – with food prices increasing at faster rates than prices in the Eurozone during the crisis, despite the sharp fall in domestic incomes and labour costs. This led to a drop in food expenditure in total terms but an increase in food expenditure as a share of total monthly expenditure from 16.4% in 2008 to 20.7% in 2016.

— The proportion of households that cannot afford a meal with meat, chicken, fish (or vegetarian equivalent) every second day, for example, doubled during the crisis from approximately 7% in 2008 to more than 14% in 2016.

* The EU defines this as someone severely materially deprived, below the poverty line after social transfers, or living in households where adults are employed less than 20% of the time.

— The share of households with children unable to afford a protein-based meal on a daily basis doubled from 4.7% in 2009 to 8.9% in 2014. EU statistics estimate that 40.5% of children in 2016 faced material and social deprivation.
— Overall the crisis prompted a noticeable change in consumption patterns with the substitution of higher cost food items with more inexpensive foods.

2. Austerity measures impacted particularly severely on small-scale food producers and traders.

The adverse measures on farmers included:

• Higher taxes and increased costs of production due to the replacement of a separate income tax regime for farmers with a standardised income tax system, higher VAT rates on agricultural inputs including on fertilizer, pesticide, feed and seed, and diesel; and the introduction of a new tax on farmland. Taxes as a proportion of agricultural net value added soared from 4% between 1993 and 2010 to 15.4% in 2016.
• The abolition of the specialised Agricultural Insurance Organisation (OGA) and its merging with a generalised system of social security has led to higher contributions for many farmers.

As well as direct impacts, a number of structural reforms significantly tipped the balance in favour of larger food retailers and private traders to the detriment of small-scale producers. These reforms included:

• Retail trade liberalisation, such as the lifting of restrictions on particular goods sold in supermarkets, flexibilisation of labour laws, and a move towards Sunday trading.
• Wholesale trade liberalisation, specifically the privatisation of the formerly publicly administered and profitable Central Markets and Fishery Organisation, the country’s prime wholesale food operator, responsible for the country’s 2 major food markets and 11 fish markets.
• Privatisations, including the privatisations of the Agricultural Bank of Greece (ATE) and the major dairy cooperative AGNO. The results have been increased costs for farmers less access to rural credit, specialised financial services, and agronomic advice.

3. The austerity measures hit an already weakened rural food sector made vulnerable by long-term trends.

Agriculture in Greece remains a significant part of the economy, making up nearly 4% of the country’s GDP (more than double the EU average) and providing 12% of the country’s jobs in 2016, but it has been in a state of decline since the early 1980s. Greece’s entrance into the European Economic Community in 1981 and later the EU – and the Common Agricultural Policy – opened up Greece’s small-scale farmers to greater competition. This led to a number of vulnerabilities in the Greek agri-food system prior to the crisis including:

• A steady fall in domestic agricultural production and an increasing reliance on food imports that led to a negative food trade balance. Between the late 1980s and the beginning of the crisis in 2008, the food trade deficit frequently exceeded 1% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) while in the period 2005–2011, imports accounted for nearly 40% of domestic consumption.
• Increasing reliance on food subsidies with subsidies rising as a share of net value added in agriculture from 23% in 1993 to 81% in 2008.
• A growing supermarket sector that intensified monopolistic conditions in relation to producers and consumers alike.

These trends have undermined Greece’s food sovereignty, turning Greece from a net food exporter to a net food importer. Yet rather than remedying these vulnerabilities, the three MOUs (2010, 2012 and 2015) accelerated these trends. Examining the structural requirements of the memorandums suggests a deliberate ideological project of transforming the State and restructuring the Greek economy in favour of certain sectors of capital such as large (trans)national supermarket chains. The crisis provided a means to implement it.

4. The Greek government’s social safety net was insufficient to prevent food insecurity and poverty.

The Greek government enacted a number of social programmes seeking to provide a safety net against the fallout from austerity and to address urgent food insecurity concerns. These included the passing of a humanitarian assistance law that provided food, rent and electricity subsidies for low-income individuals and families. This was later replaced by a Social Solidarity Scheme which provides low-income households with a monthly allowance.

While addressing the most basic needs, the Scheme’s support has been limited in scope, providing only €30 to €200 per household per month, with an additional €100 for every adult and €50 euros per child. The strict eligibility criteria limits support to the most severe cases of material deprivation, while the means testing requirements exclude many who would be entitled due to its restrictive and bureaucratic stipulations. Coverage in rural areas has also been limited.

As a result, private foundations, charities, NGOs, and the Greek Church have had to fill some of these gaps – offering among others free school meals, food banks and soup kitchens, and ‘social grocery’ stores that provide food, clothing, cleaning materials, and other basic goods for low- income individuals and families.

While some of these programmes receive support from local municipalities, and in the case of the school meals programme also central government backing, they are little more than sticking plasters. Human rights-based responses, such as supporting jobs and just wages, that would deal with the root causes of hunger and food insecurity need to be much more centrally foregrounded.

5. Community-led popular responses provide real solutions and point to the emergence of a new food politics.

In the face of Troika-enforced government policies undermining food sovereignty – and a failure to adequately ameliorate its impacts - a range of grassroots community initiatives have emerged to help secure people’s access to food.

These reflect different political tendencies, vary in terms of infrastructure and engage differently with States and markets. They include solidarity kitchens, food cooperatives, ‘No intermediaries’ markets, food self-sufficiency collectives and networks, Community-supported agriculture (CSA) schemes, as well as a range of other agricultural cooperatives, alternative farm models, and producers’ ventures.

The call for a ‘solidarity economy’ has become a key framework within which many grassroots responses have articulated their demands and aspirations. This Social Solidarity Economy (SSE) has grown massively during the years of the crisis: in 2013, 372 social enterprises were registered while in the years 2014, 2015 and 2016 these rose to 585, 714 and 907 respectively.

In building up such counter-power from below based on innovative practices, social experimentation and people-controlled infrastructures, this movement is paving the way not only for a popular resistance to austerity, but also a new, transformative, just food system. This extends beyond demands for affordable food prices and farmer protection towards genuinely challenging the structural power of the corporate agribusiness sector and advancing popular alternatives.

6. The right to food has been violated in Greece.

The right to adequate food is strongly enshrined in international human rights law and its normative content notes several elements (availability, accessibility, adequacy, sustainability) that need to be safeguarded. The right to adequate food also correlates closely with other economic, social and cultural rights (ESCR), meaning that the violation of one right often leads to the violation of other rights. The right to health, life, water and adequate housing are underlying determinants of the right to food.

Several austerity measures - including changes to agricultural taxes and social security regimes and the drive towards privatization and trade liberalization - contributed directly to undermining the right to food in Greece. Other measures such as minimum wage reductions and pension cuts also affected this fundamental human right and contravened other economic, social and cultural rights, such as the right to work, housing and health.

States have the obligation to realize human rights. This obligation includes the progressive realization of socio-economic rights with the maximum available resources, which prima facie prohibits retrogressive* measures that would limit or reduce existing levels of enjoyment of enshrined rights. Retrogressive measures can only be taken under very limited circumstances and based on key conditions – such as careful monitoring and evaluation, consideration of all rights, ensuring no disproportionate impact on the most vulnerable – none of which was applied by the Greek government. The wide array of retrogressive measures taken, combined with the increasing cost of living, are sufficient proof that the right to food was violated in Greece.

* Retrogressive measures means any measure that implies a step back in the level of human rights protection due to the intentional decision by a State.


7. Accountability for violations of the right to food rests both with the Greek government and the Eurozone Member States, with the latter arguably taking a greater share of the responsibility.

When a human right is violated, it means there has been a breach in the obligation to respect, protect and fulfill this human right. Many actors were involved in the negotiations leading to the three MoUs. Human rights obligations exist territorially and, under certain circumstances, extraterritorially.
As a result of the austerity measures, Greece has violated the human right to food of people living in Greece. Yet, Eurozone Member States, as direct lenders are also responsible as they signed the MoUs and likely pressured the Greek government to do so. Eurozone Member States – as States Parties to the International Covenant on Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights and other international human rights instruments – have therefore breached their extraterritorial obligations to respect the human right to food in Greece. Not only should Eurozone States have refrained from requiring measures that affected the right to food, they should have also conducted human rights impacts assessments of the Memorandums. These HRIAs are required prior to, during, and after the passing of MoUs, but were never done.

Furthermore, all European States have failed to comply with their human rights obligations when acting and taking decisions in Intergovernmental Organisations and International Financial Institutions, such as in the International Monetary Fund. As part of the UN system, the latter is obliged to comply with the UN Charter which includes a commitment to the progressive realization of human rights. It certainly should not take any action that would constitute a human rights violation.

Troika members claim that the sole responsibility for the impacts of the MoUs lies with the Greek State. This argument is false because they, with Greece, were joint signatures of the three MoUs. Therefore, the responsibility for violations of the right to food is a shared one too. Indeed it can be argued that the responsibility of the Eurozone Member States is much bigger, given the evidence of direct interference or even coercion by the Member States of the Troika on Greece to sign the MoUs.

The focus of this report is on Greece, but its findings are relevant internationally. Greece is not an exception. Many other countries, in and outside of Europe, find themselves in similar situations, forced to implement austerity-driven, technocratic policies which lead to violations of economic, social and cultural rights including the fundamental right to food. Greece’s experience also shows that the violations of these fundamental rights are not only issues of the global South. They are happening in the global ‘North’. Hunger, food insecurity, poverty and material deprivation are European issues. Human rights are universal, which means all governments have obligations to fulfill them. It is time now for the EU to act in accordance with these obligations and put human rights above the needs of financial markets.

The Transnational Institute (TNI) is an international research and advocacy institute committed to building a just, democratic and sustainable planet. For more than 40 years, TNI has served as a unique nexus between social movements, engaged scholars and policy makers. www.tni.org
FIAN International was founded in 1986 as the first international human rights organization to advocate for the realization of the right to adequate food and nutrition. FIAN’s mission is to expose violations of people’s right to food wherever they may occur. www.fian.org
Agroecopolis is a young, grassroots non-profit, non- governmental organisation. It is the Hellenic Network for Agroecology, Food Sovereignty and Access To Land. www.agroecopolis.org

Bill Mitchell's post here

7/11/2018

The Political Representation of the European People

By Etienne Balibar, Emeritus Professor at Paris X Nanterre and Anniversary Chair of Modern European Philosophy at Kingston University, London. He has addressed such questions as European racism, the notion of the border, whether a European citizenship is possible or desirable, violence, identity and emancipation. His books include Reading Capital (with Louis Althusser, New Left Books 1970), Race, Nation, Class (with Immanuel Wallerstein, Verso, 1991), The Philosophy of Marx, Spinoza and Politics, Politics and the Other Scene (Verso, 2002), and We, the People of Europe? Reflections on Transnational Citizenship (Princeton UP, 2004). Originally published at openDemocracy
English version of the political philosopher’s interview with Vadim Kamenka of L’Humanite Dimanche (21 June)and Ana Maria Merlo for Il Manifesto (15 June).
IM/HD: We are today witnessing the advance of nationalist, xenophobic and extreme-right groups in every successive European election. They have even managed to enter government, for instance, in Italy. What’s going on?
Etienne Balibar (EB):This trend has been ongoing for years and reveals a crisis in the current form of European construction, which is probably irreversible. It is moving from one country to another, but the formula is the same: the effects of austerity measures on the poor and middle classes as well as the development of social and territorial inequalities are the logical result of so-called free and undistorted competition. These elements crystallise within the malaise created by the technocratic government of the EU and its member states. They foster nationalism, xenophobia and a loathing for democracy.
But ever since the Greek crisis and Brexit, it has also become clear that it is neither possible to leave the EU, nor to expel a member state. Obviously, some political forces believe in an exit from Europe, but no government can impose it. I think the situation will further deteriorate as we head towards a mutual neutralisation of hegemonic forces in Europe due to the lack of an alternative project on the part of new individuals, emergent groups or political movements. The consequences of this development are unpredictable.
IM/HD: Will we see an EU showdown with Italy, similar to the one in 2015?
EB:The statements of the president of the EU Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, are revealing. He has said that he wanted to avoid the errors made in 2015. But what errors is he referring to? Is he talking about the content, about the wilful destruction of an economy and a society? Or is he merely talking about the form this took, which hadn’t respected the procedures? The European leaders know that they cannot show the same open contempt towards the choice made by the Italians with which they treated that of the Greeks. But I do find it telling that they want to avoid a conflict with the extreme-right while they deliberately sought it with the left-wing government.
IM/HD:Do the suggestions for an overhaul of Europe put forward by French president Emmanuel Macron during his speech at the Sorbonne or the plans laid out by German Chancellor Angela Merkel really take into account the full extent of the crisis that Europe is undergoing?
EB: What plan? It’s mere window dressing. Of course cultural exchanges are important. But it won’t take us very far if it’s only to proclaim once again the common destiny of the European peoples. The crux of the matter is the EU economic and financial structures. Banks have already been consolidated. The project to transform the European solidarity mechanism into a monetary fund was inspired by the rules of the IMF. And Germany and the Netherlands still don’t accept a common budget without guarantees against transfers.
Ever since the crisis of 2008, economists have repeatedly said that a single currency cannot work without a common budget. But Germany only accepts minor adjustments, and it is likely that the French government will head in the same direction. This will seal the sovereignty of financial institutions instead of limiting competition between European states and producers and thereby strengthening solidarity.
The project that is here outlined certainly doesn’t attempt to ward off the splitting of Europe into hierarchical economic zones: attractive zones for foreign capital, subcontracting zones, zones for the supply of a cheap workforce and holiday zones for the bourgeoisie and petty bourgeoisie. What happens in Greece today is striking. The salaries and pensions have collapsed, current accounts are picking up, and the tourism industry is running at full capacity. The environmental and sociological consequences are terrifying.
More at Naked Capitalism

8/19/2017

Can someone please tell Schäuble there is scientific proof that Greece should leave the EU.

Feb. 2017: Germany’s finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble tells Athens it can cut its £280bn debt only by leaving the single currency.


Here is why, and that is courtesy none other than Nassim Nicholas Taleb & Pierre Zalloua:
"No matter how you slice it, modern Greeks are much closer to Northern Levantines than they are to Nordics."

Nassim Nicholas Taleb & Pierre Zalloua

But then again, perhaps the Swabian housewife economist finance guru knew it all along.

6/27/2017

Steve Keen on Greece and the EU ... and Schäuble

Here is a recent talk by Steve Keen on Greece, the EU, and austerity ... and why Schäuble is a total idiot. Of course there is design in his idiocy and that of German economists.


via SocDem21


While we are at it, the

Bank of England goes MMT


2/08/2017

The Far Side of Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem

Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem said on Tuesday he was surprised by the IMF's most recent review of Greece, which he said was unnecessarily pessimistic.

The unpublished report says that Greece's debt load is unsustainable.
.....

Greece is in a better condition than the IMF thinks says Dijsselbloem
.....

Here is Bill Mitchell

In last year’s – Greece: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2016 Article IV Mission (released September 23, 2016) – the IMF said:
Looking forward, growth prospects remain weak and subject to high downside risks, and unemployment is expected to stay in the double digits until the middle of the century.
Yes, remember that little piece of understatement – the Greek unemployment rate will remain in double figures until at least 2050.
33 years to go.
Some young people in Greece may never have the opportunity to work.

Just found this table via Alphaville (source). It shows that staying in the euro was the worst decision Greece could have taken. The comparison with other EMs is telling.

Greece compared to other EMs

Schäuble and Dijsselbloem in Greece
(Image: Gary Larson)

7/23/2015

Simon Wren-Lewis 16 months ago on the plight of Greece.

Simon Wren-Lewis 16 months ago on the plight of Greece. A month ago, the Ugly German decided it is not good enough. We need to completely wreck a country and set an example that Germany needs no tanks anymore. A pliable press, a generous dose of Schadenfreude, coupled with a self-serving disregard of its own recent history of bailouts, Germany yet again does what it's good at: antagonize a whole continent.




Simon Wren-Lewis

Friday, 7 March 2014

The sharp but effectual remedy

This is about the Eurozone, and it needs to be rather long to be provocative. You do not need any prior knowledge to understand the message.

Mario Draghi, head of the ECB, declared the Eurozone as an “island of stability” yesterday as he announced no change in policy. He was referring to the impact of the Ukrainian crisis, but I think it serves for macroeconomic policy as a whole. Inflation is well below target, and there is a negative output gap of nearly 4% according to the OECD. Unemployment remains at 12%. There is a recovery from recession, but as Reza Moghadam from the IMF points out, it is weak and fragile.

So the Eurozone is stable, stuck in a bad place. As the IMF again warns, this place looks a lot like Japan in the 1990s. I have my misgivings (technical discussion here) about the ‘two equilibria’ idea that Gavin Davis among others have used, but where it might apply is when a central bank’s inflation target is either unclear or one-sided, and that is much more true for the ECB than for the Fed or the Bank of England. What is clear is that the ECB should not wait until there is deflation before doing more than sitting on its hands.

Yet complacency is not confined to the ECB. We had a second Eurozone recession because fiscal austerity has been acute in some member countries, and it has not been offset elsewhere. (For the numbers, see here.) If you think that is because the Eurozone is a monetary union and not a fiscal union, ask yourself this. If overall fiscal policy was being determined in Brussels rather than by individual national governments, would it be so very different today? I suspect we would be seeing similar overall austerity as the ‘Eurozone government’ obsessed with reducing debt. Given their relative competitivepositions, that would mean ‘stability’ in parts of the Eurozone and severe recessions elsewhere, much as we have now.

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“drastic reductions to municipality budgets have led to a scaling back of several activities (eg, mosquito spraying programmes), which, in combination with other factors, has allowed the re-emergence of locally transmitted malaria for the first time in 40 years”

“a 21% rise in stillbirths between 2008 and 2011 …. attributed to reduced access to prenatal health services for pregnant women.”

These are statements not about some poor African nation, but about Greece, from a recent paper in the Lancet. (HT Francesco Saraceno. Quotes above and below exclude footnotes giving references.) The title of the paper is  ‘Greece's health crisis: from austerity to denialism’. By denialism they mean the following:

“Greek citizens ... are subject to one of the most radical programmes of welfare-state retrenchment in recent times, which in turn affects population health. Yet despite this clear evidence, there has been little agreement about the causal role of austerity. There is a
broad consensus that the social sector in Greece was in grave need of reform, with widespread corruption, misuse of patronage, and inefficiencies, and many commentators have noted that the crisis presented an opportunity to introduce long-overdue changes. Greek Government officials, and several sympathetic commentators, have argued that the introduction of the wide ranging changes and deep public-spending cuts have not damaged health and, indeed, might lead to long-term improvements. However, the scientific literature presents a different picture. In view of this detailed body of evidence for the harmful effects of austerity on health, the failure of public recognition of the issue by successive Greek Governments and international agencies is remarkable.”

This paper focuses on Greece, but here I talked more generally about the work of one of the co-authors, David Stuckler, who finds a general association between austerity and deteriorating public health.

--------------------------

Between 1846 and 1851 about a million died of starvation and epidemic disease in the Irish potato famine. The general consensus today is that although this famine began as an extraordinary natural catastrophe, its impact was made much worse by the actions (or lack of action) of the British government, headed by the Whig Lord John Russell. As Jim Donnelly describes here, there seem to be three ideologies that held the “British political élite and the middle classes in their grip, and largely determined the decisions not to adopt the possible relief measures.” These were “the economic doctrines of laissez-faire, the Protestant evangelical belief in divine Providence, and the deep-dyed ethnic prejudice against the Catholic Irish.” The system of agriculture in Ireland was perceived in Britain to be riddled with inefficiency and abuse. The British civil servant Charles Trevelyan, chiefly responsible for administering Irish relief policy, wrote that the famine was “the sharp but effectual remedy by which the cure is likely to be effected.”

There is a debate about the humanity and personal responsibility of Charles Trevelyan. Yet his actions were hardly idiosyncratic. The Lord Lieutenant of Ireland, the Earl of Clarendon wrote a letter to Prime Minister Russell on April 26th, 1849, expressing his feelings about lack of aid from the British House of Commons: "I do not think there is another legislature in Europe that would disregard such suffering as now exists in the west of Ireland, or coldly persist in a policy of extermination." Henry Farrell notes that the Economist magazine strongly supported the laissez-faire line pursued by Trevelyan and Russell. Were the governing elite collectively evil, as they provided armed guards for the shipping of huge quantities of grain away from the same areas affected by the blight? We could just say people act in their own interests, but as Dani Rodrik argues, this underestimates the power of ideas and ideologies.

-------------------

Of course the Irish famine is different in degree and form to the difficulties being faced by many in some Eurozone economies. But the similarities should worry us. There is the widespread view that the inefficiencies and corruption that exist in these economies are a key factor in explaining the difficulties these countries are in. Worse still is the idea that severe austerity is necessary to ensure ‘structural reform’ takes place to reduce these inefficiencies. There is also a common belief today that various economic processes cannot be interfered with and contracts have to be upheld, which are not very different from beliefs held by the British government in the 1840s. When the ‘effectual remedy’ leads directly to suffering, the evidence that it does so is ignored, as the Lancet paper argues is happening in Greece today.

If you think that the problems in Greece and elsewhere are clearly self-inflicted, rather than the result of an act of God like potato blight, consider this. The Greek government borrowed way too much and concealed that fact, but this was hidden from the Greek people as much as anyone else. Just because politicians are elected, does that make the people as a whole responsible for everything they do? Are they more responsible than those who lent the government this money, or in the case of other Eurozone countries lent money to banks that were subsequently bailed out with no public discussion? 

In Victorian times there was a belief that the debtor must be made to repay their debts whatever the hardship that this entails, and with minimal cost to the creditor. We think we live in more enlightenedtimes today, but at least the individuals in debtor prisons normally signed the contracts they were being held to. In the case of Greece and elsewhere their leaders signed on their population’s behalf.

If you say that the law must be followed, well the British government was also protecting the rule of law when it ensured that those shipments of grain left famine stricken Ireland. Are those shipments of grain so very different from the flows of money now leaving Greece and elsewhere to pay the interest on government debt? Our attitude to famines is a little more enlightened than it was in the 1840s, but perhaps some of that enlightenment is needed elsewhere.

7/17/2015

So thrifty Germans keep financing those lazy Greeks?

So the latest Coup bailout of Greece perpetrated by Germany (et.al.) is just more money down the drain for these lazy, Retsina guzzling Greeks, right? No matter what German paper you read and what fucking boring German TV station you watch, that is the verdict. And the ordinary German loves it and agrees in telephone polls by 90%. Prejudices want to be nurtured and want to be reiterated because that is one way to enjoy your own low-wage work life in Germany. Is there any other peoples in the world that has a word like 'Schadenfreude'?

In 'And the Greek Debt Merry-Go-Round Spins & Spins...' C. Gurdgiev has some numbers that the ordinary German is absolutely not interested in hearing let alone seen written. So here they are:

via 

Source: FT

  • EUR29.7 billion of cash to be loaned to Greece will go to pay down the money borrowed by Greece under the privies EU lending schemes so that a merry-go-round of European policymaking can spin and spin. 
  • EUR25 billion will go to the banks to cover damages done by previous merry-go-round schemes. 
  • EUR17.2 billion will pay interest on past and current merry-go-round schemes. 
  • EUR7.7 billion will go to the banks to cover potential runs by depositors scared of the merry-go-round schemes. 

In total, all but miserly EUR7 billion of new loans to Greece will go one way or the other to sustain unsustainable old loans.

Indian economist Jayati Ghosh on how Germany treated Greece

The Failed Project of Europe




There is a stereotypical image of an abusive husband, who batters his wife and then beats her even more mercilessly if she dares to protest. It is self-evident that such violent behaviour reflects a failed relationship, one that is unlikely to be resolved through superficial bandaging of wounds. And it is usually stomach-churningly hard to watch such bullies in action, or even read about them.

Much of the world has been watching the negotiations in Europe over the fate of Greece in the eurozone with the same sickening sense of horror and disbelief, as leaders of Germany and some other countries behave in similar fashion.

The extent of the aggression, the deeply punitive conditionalities being imposed as terms of a still ungenerous bailout and the terrible humiliation and pain being wrought upon the Greek people are hard to explain in purely economic or even political terms. Instead, all this seems to reflect some deep, visceral anger that has been awakened by the sheer effrontery of a government of a small state that dared to consult its people rather than immediately bowing to the desires of the leaders of larger countries and the unelected technocrats who serve them. There was also anger directed at the people themselves, who dared to vote in a referendum against the terms of a bailout package that offered them only more austerity, less hope and continued pain in the foreseeable future, just so that their country can continue to pay the foreign debts that everyone (even the IMF!) knows simply cannot be paid.

The response went beyond completely ignoring the will of the Greek people as expressed in the referendum, to insist on pushing even worse conditions on them for their resistance. There was clearly a need to punish both the Syriza-led government and the Greek voters for daring to protest, by forcing upon them the most appalling and humiliating terms that have been seen in a non-war situation for a European nation, for the increasingly dubious advantage of staying within the eurozone.
Greece will become an economic protectorate, indeed little more than a colony of Germany within the eurozone. It will have no control over its fiscal policies, forced to sell valuable public assets that amount to more than a third of annual national income just to keep trying to pay its creditors. It will have to reverse decisions made in the recent past to preserve some public employment such as of cleaning and sanitation workers and security guards, whom it will now have to fire again, and will have to cut pensions of elderly people who have already seen their pensions fall by 40 per cent. It will have to increase indirect taxes that will hit the poor most.

It will have to accept the constant presence of the external rulers, in the form of an IMF team that will monitor the budget and the activities of the Greek government, who are not any more to be trusted by the European leaders. Since the troika has thus far not been able to push Syriza out of power, they are now seeking the alternative of a much weakened party in government (soon no doubt to become a “government of national unity” with the support of centrist and right wing MPs) under the direct political control of the (mostly unelected) European bosses. And of course the result of all this austerity will be more depression, in an economy that has been spiralling downwards for more than five years, which will further generate terrible social outcomes, including the greater rise of extreme rightwing movements like the Golden Dawn. This will be a really prolonged Greek tragedy, with no clear end in sight.

European leaders constantly project the Greek case against other countries in the eurozone that are supposed “success stories” of austerity, economies that took the bitter economic medicine and now apparently have got well again, like Ireland, Spain and even Latvia. This is complete nonsense. None of these countries faced austerity as severe as that which has already been imposed on Greece. The much vaunted “recovery” in these countries amounts to no more than a tiny increase in GDP after years of huge declines. There have been small increases on the completely depressed levels of income that are still much below the per capita incomes of five years ago. Unemployment rates remain very high, and would be even higher if the emigration of the young and of the best and brightest in these societies had not kept labour force numbers low. Material insecurity and greater poverty are still rampant.

These economies are being presented as successes only to promote a finance-driven approach to economic policy, and to camouflage the greater failure of the eurozone and the European Union in general in coming out of stagnation.

The terrible irony in Europe today – and the major concern – is that it is the extreme rightwing parties in Europe (the National Front in France, the UK Independence Party) and parties like Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement in Italy that are the loudest voices about how this is a betrayal of the people’s will and how the EU as it exists is incompatible with democracy. Centre left parties are too bound up in the flawed European project to protest, and more progressive movements like Podemos in Spain are in a state of shock. Indeed, the desire to prevent the rise of such progressive parties has probably played a big role in determining the aggressive stance of the EU.

Why did the Syriza government agree to accept this defeat, behaving, as some observers have described it, like a beaten dog? The not-so-distant experience of Argentina’s devaluation in 2001 suggests that it is very hard to get popular support for the collapse of a currency union (or currency board linked to the dollar in the case of Argentina) because of the feelings of uncertainty it generates in addition to the inevitable massive devaluation. These things typically happen when they are forced upon countries, not voluntarily taken on.

But this drama is clearly not over, and as it becomes clear over the next few months that this so-called deal cannot and does not work, this will inevitably come unstuck. It is only to be hoped that the Greek government is making some preparations to make the eventual exit from the euro less disorderly than it could be.

Whatever happens, the economic and political landscape of the European Union is now changed fundamentally. The humiliation of Greece today will come back to torment European leaders tomorrow. The co-operative ideal of a united Europe is demolished forever, and the reality of the project as a measure in the interests of finance capital, enforced by the German state and fundamentally at odds with any real attempt at people’s participation, is now laid bare.

So there’s now no question about it: this European marriage will not last. At least three reasons make this denouement inevitable. First, a monetary union without some modalities for fiscal transfers cannot last because the requirements placed on deficit countries to adjust are too severe and essentially unachievable; yet the pressure in Europe are pushing towards the opposite of fiscal union. Second, this strategy in any case generates severe deflationary pressure in which the only impulse for expansion must come from outside, that is net export growth, and even that cannot prevent stagnation, which means worse labour market conditions, worse prospects for the young, more inequality and so on. Third, the growing tension between these institutions and popular reaction cannot be completely controlled by finance capital and its agents. The political tensions can be expressed from the left (like Podemos) or the right (like the Front National) but they are definitely growing across Europe and sooner or later they will find some reflection in policies. In the current context that implies not greater integration but disintegration in Europe.

The only questions now are: how long will it take before the breakdown becomes explicit? How much more pain and violence will be forced on people across Europe before that final break? And how long will German government bullying in the interests of finance capital be tolerated by the people of Europe and ultimately by the people of Germany themselves?

7/16/2015

The Greek Deal From Germany - Reading Between the Lines and Arnulf Baring

They will say that we are subsidizing scroungers, lounging in cafés on the Mediterranean beaches. Monetary union, in the end, will result in a gigantic blackmailing operation. When we Germans demand monetary discipline, other countries will blame their financial woes on that same discipline, and by extension, on us. More, they will perceive us as a kind of economic policeman. We risk once again becoming the most hated in Europe. 


via JESSY'S  CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN


Perhaps the Greeks made a mistake, and relied too much on rationality, on a belief in a Eurozone in which good sense and reason would prevail.   As it was, the Germans were willing to ruthlessly crush the Greek banking system, while the ECB and IMF stood idly by, fomenting a financial panic and humanitarian disaster in order to displace a sovereign government and put an entire nation 'in its place.'   We certainly have seen this kind of example made before.

This was an exercise in raw power.  It was a financial blitzkrieg, an act of economic warfare and reckless destruction on a people that ought to be condemned by the free world.  But this kind of ruthless abuse of financial systems seems to be the accepted thing now amongst the developed economies.  And we might view Greece as a sort of an experiment in a new form of warfare and ruthlessness, as were Guernica, Warsaw, and Lidice.

It is a shame if the Greeks have not prepared for Grexit, although there are still clearly options despite the naysayers who see only difficulties in everything.   Freedom is rarely the easier way.

The lesson that the countries of the Eurozone cannot trust Germany to act with wisdom and goodwill was known, but now we also see that restraint is also not in their repetoire.  If one can read between the lines, it would be a pity if the rest of the European countries do not start planning now for their own active exit from such an failed concept as the European Monetary Union.

And it would be a tragedy if the rest of the world does not now see plainly where a single currency for the world would also take them, where it is already taking them.   Modern theories about its benign utility to do only good aside, money is raw power.  And one must be exceptionally careful of granting that power to create and distribute and manage money into the hands of vain and corruptible people without stringent  transparency, checks and balances, and provisions for justice and individual freedom.

Are the lights going out all over Europe?   Not yet, but there is a darkness casting its shadow over the earth.   I fear that Greece is only the beginning of a new phase in the degradation of the human condition by the power of insatiable greed, and spiritual wickedness in high places.


"The earth, entire peoples and individual persons are being brutally punished. And behind all this pain, death and destruction there is the stench of what Basil of Caesarea called 'the dung of the devil'.  An unfettered pursuit of money rules.  The service of the common good is left behind. 

Once capital becomes an idol and guides people’s decisions, once greed for money presides over the entire socioeconomic system, it ruins society, it condemns and enslaves men and women, it destroys human fraternity, it sets people against one another and, as we clearly see, it even puts at risk our common home."

2/26/2015

German Econ Min Gabriel reminds of Hayek's saying

There is this post on A Fistful of Euros headlined

Pay no attention to the social democrat behind the curtain.

It juxtaposes the position and power of Schäuble and Gabriel. There is an interesting tweet mentioned  that quotes Gabriel.

German econ min tweet
So here Gabriel compares the disastrous effects of the German Hartz IV system to the much much deeper plight of the Greek people suffered via the "help" of the Troika Institution.

Gabriel is SPD member and immediately FA Hayek springs to mind when thinking about the unsurmountable debt mountain of Greece and what might lie ahead once the Greek people realize that Syriza can not deliver unless it finally realizes, the only way to growth is by leaving the euro (same of course holds true for Italy, Spain, Portugal).

Nazism is Socialism*
Friedrich August von Hayek

One of the main reasons why the socialist character of National Socialism has been quite generally unrecognized, is, no doubt, its alliance with the nationalist groups which represent the great industries and the great landowners.  But this merely proves that these groups too, as they have since learnt to their bitter disappointment, have, at least partly, been mistaken as to the nature of the movement.  But only partly because, and this is the most characteristic feature of modern Germany, many capitalists are themselves strongly influenced by socialistic ideas, and have not sufficient belief in capitalism to defend it with a clear conscience. 

It would, indeed, hardly have been possible for the Nationalists to advance fundamental objections to the economic policy of the other socialist parties when their own published programme differed from these only in that its socialism was much cruder and less rational.  The famous 25 points drawn up by Herr Feder, one of Hitler's early allies, repeatedly endorsed by Hitler and recognized by the by-laws of the National-Socialist party as the immutable basis of all its actions, which together with an extensive commentary is circulating throughout Germany in many hundreds of thousands of copies, is full of ideas resembling those of the early socialists.

Perhaps Gabriel has never read Hayek. His quote is abominable. It is a two-pronged assault:

  1. It tells Germans, look how comparatively lenient we treat you. It could get worse for you if we decide.
  2. It encourages Germans to gloat about the plight of Greek people.
Gabriel is a despicable and disgustingly fat prick.